Non-Resident Senior Fellow Professor Thomas H. Johnson

"The Illusion of Afghanistan’s Electoral Representative Democracy: The Cases of Afghan Presidential and National Parliamentary Elections,” Small Wars and Insurgencies, Vol. 29, No. 1, January, 2018, pp.1-37. https://doi.org/10.1080/09592318.2018.1404771

Taliban Narratives: The Use and Power of Stories in the Afghanistan Conflict, 380 pages, (Oxford University Press and Hurst Publishing, November 2017). http://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/taliban-narratives/

“La Diplomacia Estadounidense Tras El 11 De Sepiembre,” (US diplomacy after the September 11), Desperta Ferro: Contemporánea, ISSN 2340-8820, Nº. 14, 2016 (Ejemplar dedicado a: Afganistán, 2001), pp. 6-13.

“Los Taliban Origenes, Idelogia y Politicas, (The Taliban: Origins, Ideology and Policies), Desperta Ferro: Contemporánea, ISSN 2340-8820, Nº. 14, 2016 (Ejemplar dedicado a: Afganistán, 2001).

U.S. Policy and Strategy Toward Afghanistan after 2014, with Larry Goodson, (US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, 2014).

Culture, Conflict and Counterinsurgency, with Barry Zellen, (Stanford University Press, 2014).

“Introduction,” pp. 1-16 in Culture, Conflict and Counterinsurgency, with Barry Zellen, (Stanford University Press, 2014).

“Religious Figures, Insurgency, and Jihad in Southern Afghanistan,” pp. 120-147 in Culture, Conflict and Counterinsurgency, with Barry Zellen, (Stanford University Press, 2014).

“Conclusion,” pp.241-255 in  Culture, Conflict and Counterinsurgency, with Barry Zellen, (Stanford University Press, 2014).

“The Taliban Narrative: Understanding the Group’s Messages, Actions and Clues to Their Endgame,” with Kevin L. Steele, in Steven R Corman (ed.), Narrating the Exit from Afghanistan, (Tempe, Arizona: Center for Strategic Communication, 2013), pp.71-98.

 “Taliban Adaptations and Innovations,” Small Wars and Insurgencies, Vol. 24, No. 1, January 2013, pp. 3-27.

Book Review:  Taliban: The Unknown Enemy. By James Fergusson. (Cambridge, MA: Da Capo Press, 2010. Pp. 416. $27.95.) The Historian, Vol. 74, No. 4, Winter, 2012, pp.815-16.

 “Stuck in the Big Muddy: A Review Article,” Middle East Journal, Vol. 66, No.4 Autumn 2012. Pp.  723-733.

 “Analyzing the New Taliban Code of Conduct (Layeha): An Assessment of Changing Perspectives and Strategies of the Afghan Taliban,” with Matthew DuPee, Central Asian Survey Vol. 31, No. 1, March 2012, 77–91.

“The Fog of Peace,” with M. Chris Mason, Foreign Policy, January 18, 2012, http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/01/18/the_fog_of_peace

“Déjà Vu: Afghanistan Prepares for Another Withdrawal,” Jane’s Intelligence Review, October 2011, pp. 8-13.

“Parallels with the Past:  How the Soviets Lost in Afghanistan, How the Americans are Losing,” with Larry Goodson, Orbis: A Journal of World Affairs, Vol. 55, No. 4, 2011, Fall, pp. 577-599. (Awarded the 2011 winner of the Colonel John J. Madigan III, U.S. Army War College Staff and Faculty Published Writing competition.)

“Parallels with the Past:  How the Soviets Lost in Afghanistan, How the Americans are Losing,” with Larry Goodson, Foreign Policy Research Institute E-Notes, (Philadelphia: FPRI), April 2011.

“Transition to nowhere: The limits of ‘Afghanization’,” with Matthew DuPee, Foreign Policy, March 22, 2011, http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/22/transition_to_nowhere_the_limits_of_afghanization .

“Analyzing Taliban Taranas (Chants): An Effective Afghan Propaganda Artifact,” with Ahwad Waheed, Small Wars and Insurgencies, Vol. 22, No. 1, March 2011, pp. 3-31.

“Afghanistan is Not Ready for Democracy,” with W. Chris Mason, in Noah Berlatsky (ed.), Afghanistan: Opposing Views, (London: Greenhaven Press, 2010), pp. 128-133.

“Down the AfPak Rabbit Hole,” with W. Chris Mason, Foreign Policy, March 1, 2010, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/03/01/down_the_afpak_rabbit_hole .

Who Speaks for Islam?: Muslim Grassroots Leaders and Popular Preachers in South Asia, with Mumtaz Ahmad and Dietrich Reetz, NBR Special Report #22, (Seattle, Washington: The National Bureau of Asian Research, February 2010).

“Religious Figures, Insurgency, and Jihad in Southern Afghanistan,” in Who Speaks for Islam?: Muslim Grassroots Leaders and Popular Preachers in South Asia, NBR Special Report #22, (Seattle, Washington: The National Bureau of Asian Research, February 2010), pp. 41- 65.

“All Counterinsurgency is Local,” with W. Chris Mason in Helen E. Purkitt, (ed.) World Politics 09/10, (New York, McGraw-Hill, 2010).

“Obama’s Indecent Interval,” with W. Chris Mason, Foreign Policy, December  10, 2009, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/12/10/sorry_obama_afghanistans_your_vietnam .

“Refighting the Last War: Afghanistan and the Vietnam Template,” with W. Chris Mason, Military Review, November-December, 2009, pp. 2-14.

“Afghanistan’s Post-Taliban Transition: State Building after War,” in Daniel Brumberg and Dina Shehata (eds.), Conflict, Identity, and Reform in the Muslim World: Challenges for U. S. Engagement, (Washington. DC: United States Institute for Peace, 2009), pp. 173-197.

“Commentary on Mia Bloom, Dying to kill: the allure of suicide terror (New York: Columbia University Press, 2005),” Critical Studies on Terrorism, Vol. 2, No. 2, August 2009, 349–352.

“Democracy in Afghanistan is Wishful Thinking,” with W. Chris Mason, Christian Science Monitor, August 20, 2009, http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0820/p09s01-coop.html.

“Saigon 2009: Afghanistan is today’s Vietnam,” with W. Chris Mason, Foreign Policy, August 20, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/08/20/saigon_2009.

“Counterinsurgency In Afghanistan: Snatching Victory from the Jaws of Defeat,” in Christopher M. Schnaubelt (ed.), Operationalizing a Comprehensive Approach in Semi-Permissive Environments: NDC Forum Paper, (Rome: NATO Defense College Research Division, June 2009), pp. 186-205.

“Misunderstanding Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas,” with W. Chris Mason, International Security, Winter 2008/2009, Vol. 33, pp. 180-189.

“Winning the War in Afghanistan: Echoes of Northern Ireland and the IRA?,” with Richard English, The Brown Journal of World Affairs, Vol XV, Issue I (Fall/Winter 2008), pp. 273-285.

“All Counterinsurgency is Local,” with Chris Mason, The Atlantic Monthly, October 2008.  (Reprinted in Helen E. Purkitt (ed.), World Politics 09/10, (Boston: McGraw Hill, 2009), pp. 153-154.

“Rethinking Afghanistan: echoes of Ulster and the IRA?,” with Richard English, Policy Options, June 2008.

“No Sign until the Burst of Fire: Understanding the Pakistan - Afghanistan Frontier,” with W. Chris Mason, International Security, Spring 2008, Vol. 32, No. 4, pp. 41-77.

Strategic Culture and Violent Non-State Actors, with James Smith and Jerry Mark Long, INSS Occasional Paper No. 64, USAF Institute for National Security Studies, USAF Academy, Colorado, February 2008. 

“On the Edge of the Big Muddy: The Taliban Resurgence in Afghanistan,” China and Eurasian Forum Quarterly, Volume 5, No. 2 (2007), pp. 93-129.

“The Taliban Insurgency and an Analysis of Shabnamah (Night Letters),” Small Wars and Insurgencies, Vol. 18, No. 3, September 2007, pp. 317-344.

“Terrorism, Insurgency and Afghanistan,” with W. Chris Mason, in James JF Forrest (ed.) Counter Terrorism in the 21^st Century, Volume III: Lessons Learned From the Fight Against Terrorism, (New York, Praeger, 2007), pp. 453-478.

“Afghanistan’s Post-Taliban Transition: State Building after War,” in Jessica Piombo and Karen Guttieri (eds.) Interim Governments (Washington, DC: US Institute of Peace Press, 2007).

“Financing Afghan Terrorism: Thugs, Drugs, and Creative Movements of Money,” in Harold A. Trinkunas and Jeanne Giraldo (eds.) Terrorism Financing and State Responses: A Comparative Perspective, (Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press, 2007), pp. 93-114.

“Understanding the Taliban and Insurgency in Afghanistan,” with W. Chris Mason, Orbis: A Journal of World Affairs, Vol. 51, No. 1, 2007, pp. 71-89.

“Afghanistan’s Post-Taliban Transition: The State of State-Building after War,” Central Asian Survey, (March–June 2006) 25(1–2), pp 1–26.

“An Introduction to a Special Issue of Strategic Insights: Analyses of the Groupe Salafiste pour la Prédication et le Combat (GSPC)” Strategic Insights, Volume V, Issue 8, (November 2006).

“The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan: An Assessment of Democratic Development” A Report Prepared for The Bertelsmann Foundation and the International Advisory Council, September 2006 (The Bertelsmann Stiftung, Gütersloh, Germany).

 “Democratic Nation Building in the Arc of Crisis: The Case of the Presidential Election in Afghanistan,” in James Russell, ed., Critical Issues Facing the Middle East Security: Security, Politics, and Economics (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2006), pp 125-146.

“Central Asian Terrorism: A Problem in Search of Definition and Policy,” with Colin Lober in Global Terrorism: Genesis, Implications, Remedial and Countermeasures, Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad, Pakistan (ed.), pp.186-219, (Aziz-ul-Haque, Institute or Regional Studies, Islamabad, Pakistan, 2006).

“The Prospects for Post-Conflict Afghanistan: A Call of the Sirens to the Country’s Troubled Past,” Strategic Insights, Volume 5, Number 2, Monterey, CA: Center for Contemporary Conflict, Naval Post Graduate School, February 2006.  (Reprinted in: Homeland Security Weekly, Vol 5, Issue 5, February 2006; National Defense University; Human Security Gateway).

 “A Hard Day’s Night?: The United States and the Global War on Terror,” with James A. Russell, Comparative Strategy, 24, 2, 2005, 127-151.  (Reprinted in Countering Modern Terrorism: History, Current Issues and Future Threats, pp. 239-271 (Gesamtherstellung, Germany: W. Bertelsmann Verlag, GmbH, 2005 and Brenda J. Lutz and James M. Lutz, Global Terrorism, (London: SAGE Publications, 2008).

“Ismail Khan, Herat, and Iranian Influence,” Strategic Insights, Volume 3, Number 7 Monterey, CA: Center for Contemporary Conflict, Naval Post Graduate School, July 2004.

“The Loya Jirga, Ethnic Rivalries and Future Afghan Stability,’’ Strategic Insights, Volume 1, Number 6 Monterey, CA: Center for Contemporary Conflict, Naval Post Graduate School, August 2002.

“The Task Structure of International Peace Operations, 1964-1995,” in Stuart Nagel (ed.) Handbook on Multi-National Policy Toward World Peace, Lexington Books, 2002.

“Scholastic Modeling and Simulation” Modeling and Simulation Journal On-Line, Volume 3, Number 2, Spring, 2002.

“Requirements Analysis, Mission Space Models, and the CMMS: What's This All About?”  Modeling and Simulation Journal On-Line, Volume 1, Number 1, Fall, 1999.

"Confusion in the Midst of a "New" Foreign Policy Force: Analyzing the Task Structure of Peace Operations," in Ted Woodcock and D.F. Davis (eds.) Analysis for and of the Resolution of Conflict: Proceeding of the Cornwallis II Conference, Cornwallis Park, Nova Scotia, Canada: The Lester B. Pearson Canadian International Peacekeeping Training Centre, pp. 293-331, 1998.

Analysis of Peace Operations Tasks: Relevance and Factor Analysis, Fairfax, Va.: The Program on Peacekeeping Policy, George Mason University, September 1996, 150 pp.

"Old Concepts for the Assessment of a New World," with D. Davis, The Brown Journal of World Affairs, Volume III, Issue 2, Summer/Fall, 1996.

The Costs of Participation and Nonparticipation in the Military Technical Revolution, with David C. Isby, Bruce Russett and David Kinsella, McLean, VA: SPARTA and Washington, DC: Office of Net Assessments, Office of the Secretary of Defense, 1993, 185 pp.

"Post-Soviet Nuclear Forces and the Risk of Accidental or Unauthorized Limited Nuclear Strikes," with David C. Isby, Fall, 1993, Strategic Review, 21 (4): 8-21.

Review and Analysis of the Foreign Availability of AT-Compatible Microcomputers: An Assessment of the Department of Commerce's Findings, Silver Spring, MD: The Orkand Corporation and Washington, DC: Office of the Secretary of Defense, Trade Security Policy, 1990, 130 pp.

Afghanistan: The Western Hinterland Provinces, with Philip E. Jones, John Mariz, Margo Grimm, and John Hill. Silver Spring, MD: The Orkand Corporation, 1989, 173 pp.

Afghanistan: The Southern Provinces, with Philip E. Jones, Margo Grimm, John Hill, Joseph Newman, and John Mariz. Silver Spring, MD: The Orkand Corporation, 1989, 263 pp.

Afghanistan: The Eastern Provinces, with Philip E. Jones, John Hill, Margo Grim, and Joseph Newman. Silver Spring, MD: The Orkand Corporation, 1988, 224 pp.

Afghanistan: The Northern Provinces, with Philip E. Jones, John Hill, Margo Grim, and Joseph Newman. Silver Spring, MD: The Orkand Corporation, 1988, 460 pp.

The Threat of Narco-Terrorism in Latin America and the Implications for the United States, with Michael Dixon. Silver Spring, MD: The Orkand Corporation, 1988, 133 pp.

"Sixty Coups in Thirty Years -- Further Evidence Regarding African Military Coups D'Etat," with Patrick J. McGowan, 1986. Journal of Modern African Studies, 24 (3): 539-546.

"Explaining African Coups D'Etat: A Controversial Debate," with Patrick J. McGowan, March, 1986, American Political Science Review, 80: 237-249.

"Forecasting African Coups D'Etat," with Patrick J. McGowan, Summer, 1985. Politikon: South African Journal of Political Science, 12 (2): 3-22.

"African Military Coups D'Etat and Underdevelopment: A Quantitative Historical Analysis," with Patrick J. McGowan, December, 1984. Journal of Modern African Studies, 22 (4): 633-667.

"Explaining African Military Coups D'Etat, 1960-1982," with Robert O. Slater and Patrick J. McGowan, September, 1984, American Political Science Review, 78: 622-640.

"Corporate Political Risk Analysis: A Critique," in Stephen J. Andriole (ed.) Corporate Crisis Management. Princeton, NJ: Petrocelli, 1985, 30 pp.

Analysis of the Causes of Military Coups D'Etat in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1960-1982, with Patrick J. McGowan. Silver Spring, MD: The Orkand Corporation, 1983, 264 pp.

"Political-Economics of Super-Power Competition: An Analysis of Three Empirically Based Computer Simulations," with W. L. Hollist in C. Kegley, Jr. and P. J. McGowan (eds.) Foreign Policy: USA/USSR. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications, 1982, 30 pp.

Analytical Methods for Foreign Service Officers. Arlington, VA: CACI, Inc.-Federal and the Foreign Service Institute, 1981, 233 pp.

Sectoral Characteristics of Saudi Arabia: Their Business Importance to the Aerospace Industry. Arlington, VA: CACI, Inc.-Federal, 1980, 315 pp.

Analysis of Superpower Crisis Management Behavior: Technical Report, with Richard P. Clayberg. Arlington, VA: CACI, Inc.-Federal, 1980, 398 pp.

Analysis of the U.S. and Soviet Crisis Management Experience: Technical Report, with Robert B. Mahoney, Jr., et. al. Arlington, VA: CACI, Inc.-Federal, 1979, 366 pp.

"Political Consequences of International Economic Relations: Alternative Explanations of United States/Latin American Noncooperation," with Ladd Hollist, November, 1979, Journal of Politics, (41): 1125-1155.

"Bibliography of Recent Foreign Policy Studies, 1974-77," pp. 293-306 in C. W. Kegley and P. J. McGowan (eds.) Challenges to America: United States Foreign Policy in the 1980's. Sage International Yearbook of Foreign Policy Studies, Vol. 4, Beverly Hills: Sage Publications, 1979.

"The AFRICA Project and the Comparative Study of African Foreign Policy," with Patrick J. McGowan, pp. 190-241 in M. W. Delancey (ed.) Aspects of International Relations in Africa. Bloomington, Indiana: African Studies Program, Indiana University, 1979.

"The International Politics of Food: Confusion in the Midst of a 'New Force,'" with James N. Rosenau, Los Angeles, Institute for Transnational Studies, 1976, 22 pp. (Paper commissioned by the Center for Futures Research, University of Southern California; research project's findings reported in Selwyn Enzer, Richard Drobnick, and Steven Alter, Neither Feast nor Famine. Lexington, Mass.: D.C. Heath and Company, 1978).

Selected Research Reports, Professional Papers and Presentations (Partial List and not up-to-date):   

“The Taliban Insurgency and its Tribal Dynamics: An Analysis of Shabnamah (Night Letters)” prepared for delivery at a “Conference on Tribal Politics and Militancy in the Tri-Border Region: The Baluch and Pashtun Tribes of Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan,” Monterey, California, September 2006.

“The Bonn Process, Elections, and the Afghan Government: A Magical Mystery Tour,” Leadership Development and Education for Security and Peace Program (LDESP) Presentation for 3-141 AR Monterey, CA., 7-10 February 2005.

“A Hard Day’s Night?: The United States and the Global War on Terror,” prepared for delivery at the Conference on Countering Modern Terrorism – History, Current Issues and Future Threats, Berlin Germany, 16-17 December 2004.

“Afghanistan: Drugs, Thugs, and Shaky Neighbors – Political Interests of Regional Countries and of the United States,” Leadership Development and Education for Security and Peace Program (LDESP) Presentation for 41 Infantry Brigade (Sep), Monterey, CA., 16-18 November 2004.

“Winning the Peace in Afghanistan: More Difficult then Winning the War,” prepared for delivery at the USS Harry Truman (CVN 7) Strike Group Regional Security Education Program (RSEP), 29 October-9 November 2004.

“Jihadists: The World Through their Eyes,” prepared for delivery at the USS Harry Truman (CVN 7) Strike Group Regional Security Education Program (RSEP), 29 October-9 November 2004.

“WMD: The Daunting Security Dilemna,” prepared for delivery at the USS Harry Truman (CVN 7) Strike Group Regional Security Education Program (RSEP), 29 October-9 November 2004.

“Islam and the Middle East: A Primer,” prepared for delivery at the USS Harry Truman (CVN 7) Strike Group Regional Security Education Program (RSEP), 29 October-9 November 2004.

“The Importance of Information of CBRN Information Stewardship: After All, It Starts and Ends with Data, prepared for delivery at The Conference on Science and Technology for Chem-Bio Information Systems, Williamsburg, VA, 19-21 October 2004.

“NBC Communication and Information Systems Interoperability,” prepared for delivery at the NATO ATP-45 Sub-Committee 6 Meeting, Antwerp, Belgium, 6-8 January 2004.

“CBRN Data Management,” prepared for delivery at The First Joint Conference on Battle Management for Nuclear, Chemical, Biological and Radiological Defense, Williamsburg, VA, 4-8 November 2002.

Biological Warfare Data for Joint Warfare Systems (JWARS) with Edward F. Brinko, San Diego, CA and Arlington, VA, SPAWAR/JOEF Project Office and Joint Warfare System Project Office, January 2003.

“Somalia and the Horn of Africa: Next Stop in the War on Terrorism,” prepared for delivery at the Bonhomme Richard Amphibious Ready Group and the Thirteenth MEU (SOC) Regional Security Education Program (RSEP), December 2001-January 2002.

“Winning the Peace in Afghanistan: More Difficult then Winning the War,” prepared for delivery at the Bonhomme Richard Amphibious Ready Group and the Thirteenth MEU (SOC) Regional Security Education Program (RSEP), December 2001-January 2002 and a lecture delivered to the National Security Affairs Department of the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, December 12, 2001.

“Afghanistan: Not Your Typical Internal Conflict Intervention,” prepared for delivery to a Conference on Intervention in Internal Conflict, a National Intelligence Council Project Jointly managed by The Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland and The Center for International Development and Conflict Management University of Maryland, College Park, MD, December 7, 2001.

“Afghanistan, the Taliban, bin Laden, and the U.S. Response,” Alexandria, VA, IITRI, September, 2001 (Modified for delivery at the USS Stennis Battle Group Regional Security Education Program (RSEP), November 10-16, 2001).

“Somalia: A Land of Never Ending Turmoil,” prepared for delivery at the USS Stennis Battle Group Regional Security Education Program (RSEP), November 10-16, 2001.

“Afghanistan: PSYOPS and CONOPS Considerations,” Alexandria, Va, IITRI, October, 2001.

“Afghanistan “Power Brokers: An Assessment,” Alexandria, Va, IITRI, October, 2001.

“A Methodology for the Development of a PRISM Joint Model,” Charlottesville, VA, National Ground Intelligence Center, Charlottesville, Va., August, 2001.

“The Development of the Joint Military Capability Spectrum Model,” paper prepared for presentation to the 69^th MORS Symposium (MORSS), US Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD, June, 2001.

PRISM Naval Data Population: Final Report, Contract Number DSCA01-00-D-004, Delivery Order 001, Charlottesville, VA, National Ground Intelligence Center, September, 2000.

"Conceptual Models of the Mission Space," briefing prepared for presentation at the Simulation Interoperability Standards Organization 1998 Fall Interoperability Workshop, Orlando, Florida, September 1998.

“Research Schema and Logic for Common Semantics and Syntax (CSS) Term Data Capture,” Alexandria, VA, The Defense Modeling and Simulation Office, August 1998.

“Mission Space Modeling and Simulation Development and Reuse,” paper prepared for presentation to the 66^th MORS Symposium (MORSS), Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, June 23-25, 1998.

“The Task Structure of International Peace Operations,” paper prepared for presentation to the 39th Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, Minneapolis, Minnesota, March 17-21 1998, 50pp.

"Mission Space Model Development, Reuse and the Conceptual Models of the Mission Space Toolset," paper prepared for presentation at the Simulation Interoperability Standards Organization 1998 Spring Interoperability Workshop, Orlando, Florida, March 9-13, 1998, 10pp.

"Mission Space Model Construction Using Conceptual Models of the Mission Space and Data Engineering Tools," briefing prepared for the 19^th Annual Interservice/Industry Training Systems And Education Conference, Orlando, Florida, December 1-4, 1997.

"NATO Peace Support Operations Tasks And Their Relevance To Historical Peace Operation Missions: A Research Note," The Program on Peacekeeping Policy, George Mason University, November 1997, 20 pp.

"Confusion in the Midst of a "New" Foreign Policy Force: Analyzing the Task Structure of Peace Operations," paper prepared for presentation at Cornwallis II Conference: Analysis for and of the Resolution of Conflict, The Lester B. Pearson Canadian International Peacekeeping Training Centre, Cornwallis Park, Nova Scotia, Canada, April 8-10, 1997, 48 pp.

"Conceptual Models of the Mission Space (CMMS) Common Syntax and Semantics (CSS) and the CMMS Verb Dictionary," Washington, DC, Department of Defense, Defense Modeling and Simulation Office, January 1997, 188 pp.

"Common Semantics and Syntax Collection: Supporting CMMS," Washington, DC, Department of Defense, Defense Modeling and Simulation Office, (CMMS Technical Working Group Meetings, April 1996; July 1996, August 1996), 79 pp.

"An Application of Bayesian Networks to Peace Operations Tasks," Fairfax, Va.: The Program on Peacekeeping Policy, George Mason University, May 1996, 20 pp.

"Common Semantics/Syntax for Domain Analysis in the Context of the CMMS and Simulations," Washington, DC, Department of Defense, Defense Modeling and Simulation Office, January 1996, 29 pp.

"CMMS Tools and Methodologies Evaluation," Washington, DC, Department of Defense, Defense Modeling and Simulation Office, January 1996, 111 pp.

"Military Spending, Economic Performance, and Defense Conversion: Challenges Awaiting the Clinton Administration," paper prepared for the Office of the Presidential and Vice Presidential Transition, Washington, D.C., November 1992, 18 pp.

"Post-Soviet Afghanistan and the Problem of Narcotic Production and Transport," paper presented at State Department/IND Sponsored Conference on Narcotics in Southwest Asia, Washington, D.C., June 1992, 25 pp.

"Global Points of Explosion: Regional Conflicts in the 1990's," paper presented at an SDIO sponsored seminar on Conflict Potential in the "New World Order," Washington, D.C., April 1991, 31 pp.

"A Critique of Dynamic Modeling Techniques and their Relevance to Intelligence Production," paper presented at a U.S. Government sponsored conference on Modeling and the Intelligence Community, Washington, D.C., March 1988, 20 pp.

"The Future of South Africa and its Implications on the Southern African Regional Subsystem," with Herbert Adam and Steve Davis. Silver Spring, MD: The Orkand Corporation, 1987, 35 pp.

"Forecasting African Coups D'Etat," with Pat McGowan, paper presented to the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, New Orleans, Louisiana, August 29 - September 1, 1985, 30 pp.

"Coups and Counts: A Simulation of African Military Coups D'Etat," paper presented to the 26th Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, Washington, D.C., February 20-23, 1985, 37 pp. (Paper nominated for the International Studies Association's Distinguished Scholarship Award.)

"An Examination of Competing Models of Military Intervention in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1960-1982," paper presented to the 24th Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, Mexico City, Mexico, April, 1983, 51 pp.

"The Crisis Relevance of U.S. and Soviet Policy Goals," paper presented to the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, Los Angeles, CA, March 19-21, 1980, 55 pp.

"Political-Economics of Super-Power Competition: An Analysis of Three Empirically Based Computer Simulations," with W. Ladd Hollist, paper presented to the Annual Convention of the North American Peace Science Association, Chicago, IL, November 13-15, 1978, 51 pp.

"Initial Assumptions and the Validity of Arms Race Models," with W. Ladd Hollist and Robert Boydston, paper presented to the Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, Washington D.C., February 22-25, 1978, 25 pp.

"Modeling United States/Latin America Cooperation and Conflict: Dependencia Arguments," with W. Ladd Hollist, paper presented to the Annual Convention of the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C., September 1-4, 1977, 37 pp.

"Testing Dependency Explanations of International Cleavages: United States/Latin American Relations," with W. Ladd Hollist, paper to the Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, St. Louis, MO, March 16-20, 1977, 46 pp.

"The Southern Africa Regional Subsystem at Cross Roads: A Structural and Behavioral Analysis of Conflict in the Region, January 1973 - December 1975, International Relations Research Institute, University of Southern California, 1976, 51 pp.

"An Analysis of International Relations During the 1973 October War: An Application of Structural Balance and Graph Theoretic Notions," School of International Relations, University of Southern California, 1976, 27 pp.

"International Relations Forecasting: Procrastination in Prognostication or Lagging Behind in Looking Ahead," paper presented to the Annual Convention of the International Studies Association West, San Francisco, CA, March 18-20, 1976, 16 pp.

"A Preliminary Examination of Foreign Conflict Behavior in Independent Black Africa, 1964-66," paper presented to the Annual Convention of the International Studies Association west, San Francisco, CA, April 3-5, 1975, 32 pp.