By Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili
Changes in Uzbekistan are driving geopolitical dynamics in Afghanistan and in the region. There is increased US diplomatic engagement in Central Asia as Afghanistan prepares for potential peace with the Taliban. There is also a new US strategy towards Central Asia. Uzbekistan has now opened itself up to relations with Afghanistan, something that was unheard of just a few years before. Relations with Uzbekistan can help Afghanistan achieve peace. But this can also be beneficial to Uzbekistan. A peaceful Afghanistan will also be beneficial to Uzbekistan as it seeks to increase trade and investment.
We would not be having a discussion of Uzbekistan-Afghanistan relations just four years ago. Under President Islam Karimov there were hardly any relations between these two countries. Uzbekistan saw Afghanistan as a security threat and a harbor for terrorism. It believed that Islamic radicals would launch attacks from Afghanistan into Uzbekistan. Most important, Karimov believed that Uzbekistanis would radicalize inside of Afghanistan and then launch attacks against his government. Indeed, Karimov saw that the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, a domestic foe, move to Afghanistan after it was chased out of both Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. In Afghanistan, this group because affiliated with Al Qaeda and other global terrorist networks.
The death of President Uzbekistan's foreign policy has been one of its greatest success in recent years. In just a few short years, the country has radically transformed its global standing, especially with its neighbors. In the past three years, Uzbekistan has opened itself up to the world. Most importantly, it has opened itself up to its neighbors. Today, residents from neighboring countries now freely visit the country. Relatives that were long separated by borders that were difficult to cross now see each other easily. This not only opens opportunities for family visits, but also gains from trade and exchange.
The domestic changes inside of Uzbekistan have the possibility of transforming the region, including Afghanistan. Uzbekistan is now more open to regional economic cooperation, such as hydroelectric power stations in Tajikistan, which can propel region projects like CASA-1000. They can also help reinvigorate the TAPI gas pipeline.
One pillar in Uzbek foreign policy that has remained constant is its non-interference in relations with its neighbors. This means it does not interfere in the affairs of ethnic Uzbeks living outside of Uzbekistan.
Uzbekistan calls its foreign policy a multi-vectored foreign policy - that it wishes to be independent and not dependent on any single power. This is not new. But the nature of this policy has changed. Today it means being more open to all its neighbors rather than equally closed to them.
Uzbekistan's more open foreign policy in Afghanistan and Central Asia is quickly transforming the country into a regional hub. As the country opens to investors, it is returning to its status as the main economic hub.
What does this mean for Afghanistan? It means the increased openness of Uzbekistan towards the rest of its neighbors means that Afghanistan is now more integrated into Central Asia. Afghanistan is increasingly becoming a Central Asian country rather than some appendage or orphan. The changes in Uzbekistan mean that other Central Asian countries can more easily integrate Afghanistan into their economic and trading systems.
For decades, Uzbekistan saw Afghanistan only as a threat. There was a great wall that existed between the two countries. The two neighbors did not know anything about one another. that situation has change dramatically.
Uzbekistan's foreign policy towards Afghanistan is emerging as one of the most humane in the region. This is reflected in attitudes of the people. Several years ago, most Afghans knew absolutely nothing about Uzbekistan, aside from the fact that the country supplied electricity to the country. This was a consequence of Karimov’s closed-door policy. Today, Many Afghans are now travelling to Tashkent. Many see Uzbekistan as a model for them to follow in the region.
On the other side of the Amu Darya, Uzbeks are less familiar with what is going on inside of Afghanistan. Although Afghans now journey to Uzbekistan and set up businesses, many Uzbekistanis still look to Afghanistan with great uncertainty. Many prominent scholars of Afghanistan inside of Uzbekistan are unable to travel to the country.
How does the US fit into all of this? The US recently released its new foreign policy strategy towards Central Asia. It reiterated its support for the sovereignty and self-determination of all Central Asian countries. This means there is an expectation from the US that it expects other powers to include Central Asian leaders in all negotiations involving what happens in their respective republics.
There are some real improvements in recent US strategy towards the region. Most importantly, it goes beyond seeing the region as Islamic terrorism. In this view, the region was simply an appendage to Afghanistan. The focus on Silk Road Strategies and Northern Distribution networks did not see a great deal of value in relations among the countries themselves, they were simply transit points or buffers to prevent extremism.
In 2015, the Obama administration launched the C5+1 format, which created a new body that brings together all five Central Asian republics alongside the United States. It is a regional consultative mechanism. It was unfortunate that the C5+1 did not include Afghanistan. This may change. In May of this year, the US launched new three-way dialogue between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. The US said it launched this program to help Afghanistan and Uzbekistan address more technical issues affecting its cooperation, such as expending rail connections. The US may repeat this trilateral approach with Tajikistan in the coming months.
Better relations with its neighbors is crucial to Uzbekistan right now. Under its previously isolationist policies, railway, and connectivity with the rest of the world was not as important as it is today. Uzbekistan is seeking foreign investment and trade to help it achieve job growth targets. It now sees Afghanistan as an important asset rather than an obstacle. Uzbekistan wants to see Afghanistan routes between Hairaton to Kabul develop through Mazar-e Sharif.
The United States is wary of China and of the Belt and Road initiative but in previously years it supported it so long as China did not use its tools to gain leverage over individual countries. We do not see this to be the case yet in Uzbekistan but concerns about debt plague Kyrgyzstan. Questions about sovereignty are now emerging in Tajikistan as China now appears to control parts of their common border and even seems to have military bases inside of Tajikistan. US relations with both Russia and China have become far less cooperative than they were during the first years after 9/11, when the US worked with Russia to ensure support for the military base in Uzbekistan after 2001. The Obama administration also tried to find with common ground with China on BRI in the region.
It is most likely the case that the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan will also be accompanied by a decreased interest in the region. Right now, the US does not offer itself as a meaningful alternative to either Russia or China, who are competing for the region's attention. Although the US has promised investment in Uzbekistan because of reforms, these investments have not come to fruition to the extent that was imagined. Secretary Pompeo visited Uzbekistan in February and said that American investments would be key to counteracting China's influence, but these pale in comparison to investments by others. Future investments in Afghanistan also remain very uncertain with the growing COVID-19 crisis that has plagued all countries. It means that the kind of assistance the US has provided is really in question.
Regardless of US policy in Central Asia, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan are now poised to be strong allies in the years to come. This is good news for the people of both countries and holds enormous promise for those who live in region.
Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili is an Associate Professor at the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Pittsburgh.
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