On Thursday, December 19, 2019, the Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies (AISS) organized a roundtable discussion on RAND’s proposal for "Envisioning a Comprehensive Peace Agreement for Afghanistan", a paper by Ms. Laurel E. Miller, published by RAND Corporation. The roundtable explored alternative agreement models for the Afghan Peace Process with a speech by Ms. Laurel E. Miller, former U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Tamim Asey, former Deputy Minister of Defense, and Naser Sidiqee, Political Commentator, with moderation by Sardar Mohammad Nader Naim, Political Activist.
Ms. Laurel Miller spoke about the overall aim of the paper. She said that the paper does not intend to provide a model agreement. It is rather intended to provide ideas for a model agreement. She iterated that the paper is not a prescription coming from Washington DC but a paper for people to react to. On the ongoing peace efforts, Ms. Miller said that none of the parties have developed their negotiating positions.
Ms. Laurel Miller spoke about provisional agreement that will facilitate to a comprehensive agreement. On how ambitious and comprehensive a peace agreement should be, Ms. Miller said that the more comprehensive the agreement is, the more time-consuming it will be to implement.
Tamim Asey spoke about the RAND proposal and the ongoing peace efforts. He said that the RAND agreement could be used as reference for a peace agreement, but it is a very Western and American way of looking at peace. On the ongoing peace efforts, he said that there is no peace process, and there is no peace talks. The ongoing talks are withdrawal talks.
On the regional issues in the RAND proposal, Mr. Asey said that the International allies of the Afghan Government have not addressed the issue of terrorist safe havens. He said that our international allies have not tried war. They have not invested on the capabilities of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces.
Adding that the Taliban see the ongoing peace process as a tactic to gain legitimacy and a tactic to say they are winning the war, he said that he foresees three scenarios; 1) a rushed peace agreement by U.S. Special Representative for peace; 2) A dirty war; and 3) Or a sustainable peace. He said that he would recommend the international allies have to be patient for a couple of years to achieve a sustainable peace.
Mr. Naser Sidiqee began with criticizing the terms used and not used in the RAND proposal. He said that there is no discussion of fundamentals of Human Rights, Women’s Rights and Freedom of Speech in the paper. He also said calling everyone on this side of the war the anti-Taliban victimizes the Taliban and legitimizes their war. He added that the people who were consulted for the drafting this paper were mainly the elite. The people of Afghanistan were not actually consulted and there is no reference to them.
Mr. Sidiqee addressed the regional aspects of RAND’s proposal. He said that the agreement is very optimistic of Iran’s role, but Iran will not be cooperating as they were in thwarting Taliban regime in 2001. Because, despite their support in 2001, the Iranians were put in the “axis of evil” by President Bush. He also discussed the issue of safe havens of terrorists in Pakistan that have not been highlighted in the RAND paper. He added that provisional agreements proposed in the paper to be signed between Afghanistan and Pakistan, will concede recognition of Durand line.
At the end, the audience engaged in Q&A session with the speaker of the program.