On Thursday, August 22, 2019, the Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies (AISS) held a roundtable discussion titled “Day after the Elections: the Leading Scenarios”. The purpose of the roundtable was to examine recent developments regarding elections and present possible scenarios. Distinguished academics, diplomats, civil society members, and media representatives attended the event.
Ahmad Shuja Jamal, Head of Peace and Reconciliation Process at the Office of the National Security Council; Abdullah Ahmadzai, Country Director of the Asia Foundation for Afghanistan; Tamim Asey, former Deputy Minister of Defense and Naim Ayoubzada, Director of Transparent Election Watch of Afghanistan, were the speakers of the event. The event was moderated by Mohammad Rafi Rafiq Sediqi, Director of the IEC’s media committee.
Ahmad Shuja Jamal said the election is a key pillar of the democratic-republican system. He outlined two basic assumptions for predicting post-election scenarios: 1) the election will have a clear winner in the first round, and 2) political bargaining can have a clear winner. With these two assumptions, post-election scenarios can be predicted.
In his remarks, Abdullah Ahmadzai called the upcoming election critical because of its concurrent with the peace talks. Ahmadzai considered three scenarios for the upcoming election. The first scenario is the postponement of the election, the second scenario is the reduction of people's participation in the election process, and the third more likely scenario is the second round of elections.
By describing major political, security and technical factors, Tamim Asey put forward four scenarios. The first scenario is the elections and the legitimacy crisis. The second scenario is a second version of the national unity government to overcome the legitimacy crisis. The third scenario is the international community's prioritization of peace talks over elections. The fourth scenario, according to Asey, is low voter turnout and election engineering.
Naim Ayoubzadeh outlines four possible scenarios for elections by explaining the issues involved in the elections.The first scenario is elections, with numerous challenges. The second scenario is a second round of elections with challenge. The third scenario is the losing teams' refusal to accept the election results. The fourth scenario is the losing teams changing the perception of the international community in their priorities.