On Thursday, August 8, 2019, the Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies (AISS) held a roundtable discussion on “Upcoming Scenarios”. The purpose of this roundtable was to discuss the likely scenarios for Afghan PeaceProcess, 2019 Presidential Elections and U.S.-Afghan Relationship. Distinguished academics, diplomats, civil society members, and media representatives attended the event.
Professor Thomas Barfield, Professor of Anthropology at Boston University and President of American Institute for Afghan Studies, Nader Nadery, Chairman of Independent Administrative Reform & Civil Service Commission, Dr. Habiba Sarabi, Member of High Peace Council, and Mawlana Mohammad Abdullah, Commissioner at Independent Election Commission were the speakers of the event. The event was moderated by Ferdaws Kawish, Editor-in-Chief of Hasht-e-Subh Daily newspaper.
Professor Thomas Barfield said that Afghanistan has changed and the Taliban should try to come to that realization. He reiterated that the Taliban must come to a compromise in negotiations with the Afghan government. He also said that the kind of regime that Afghanistan needs is not the "winner-takes-all" type of government, but a system that has voices of every Afghan in the community level.
Nader Nadery said that there is a consensus among all supporters as well as critics of Afghan government on maintaining the republic. He said that the Taliban do not want to realize and recognize the new Afghanistan. He emphasized that Afghans have to work closely with the U.S. on reaching an agreement on what works best for the interest of both sides, and that both sides have recently come closer to a certain level of agreement.
Dr. Habiba Sarabi discussed three likely scenarios for Afghan peace process. She said, “The first and the best scenario is the ideal scenario which is maintaining the republic, the constitution, the citizenship rights, women’s rights, and minorities’ rights. The second scenario is the questionable interim setup which leads to an unknown fate”. “Who should lead the interim setup? She said, remains a question”. “And the last and worst case scenario is the Taliban’s caliphate”.
Mawlana Abdullah said that the constitution gives every citizen of this country the right to choose their leaders of the government. Irregularities in previous elections cannot be reason for not holding elections. He said that the republic must be maintained. He said that if the people continue to weaken the republic from within, it will be destroyed and replace with the Taliban’s caliphate or emirate.